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Results for risk assessment (u.k.)

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Author: Wilson, Edith

Title: Assessing the Predictive Validity of the Asset Youth Risk Assessment Tool Using the Juvenile Cohort Study (JCS)

Summary: Asset is a structured risk assessment tool for young people, used by all youth offending teams in England and Wales. This research was commissioned to inform the Youth Justice Board’s (YJB) review of assessment and intervention planning. Using data from the Juvenile Cohort Study, it aimed to evaluate how well Asset predicts future proven re-offending over a one-year period. The predictive validity of Asset was also compared against the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS 3) and a combination of static and dynamic components of Asset. Asset was found to be a good predictor of one-year proven re-offending: those with higher Asset scores were more likely to re-offend, to commit more re-offences, to commit more serious re-offences, and were more likely to receive a custodial disposal (compared to those with lower Asset scores). Asset plus OGRS 3 was the best predictor of proven re-offending of those tested. As a predictor of re-offending, OGRS 3 was as good as Asset, but it did not perform well as a standalone measure for Final Warnings. The results generally support the application of OGRS 3 in the youth justice system for predicting proven one-year re-offending, which was proposed as part of the YJB review of assessment and intervention planning (although more detailed assessments may still be required for intervention planning).

Details: London: Ministry of Justice, 2011. 81p.

Source: Internet Resource: Ministry of Justice Research Series 10/11; Accessed January 17, 2012 at: http://www.justice.gov.uk/downloads/publications/research-and-analysis/moj-research/assessing-predictive-validity.pdf

Year: 2011

Country: United Kingdom

URL: http://www.justice.gov.uk/downloads/publications/research-and-analysis/moj-research/assessing-predictive-validity.pdf

Shelf Number: 123630

Keywords:
Juvenile Offenders
Recidivism
Reoffending
Risk Assessment (U.K.)